In a recent episode of Finalto’s Overleveraged Podcast, that week’s guest, investor Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital, made a counterintuitive claim. Donald Trump could fast track approval for fully autonomous driving … and it’s the last thing Elon Musk wants.  

Spiegel’s claim is his own opinion and plenty of market analysts disagree. However, his position is logically coherent if you accept his basic contention: that Tesla’s self-driving technology is all hype and not backed by substance. 

Whether you agree or not (you can listen to the full episode here), Spiegel’s comments make a valuable point about the economy under the incoming administration. Donald Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, but even the policy changes we can predict are likely to introduce a degree of uncertainty.  

Trump has, after all,  vowed to cut back on regulation. Rapidly rolling back legislation (or, if you prefer, cutting excess red tape) will have significant effects, though these effects are not always easy to anticipate.  

Deregulation: risk and reward 

Not many of us see Trump as the saviour of the fine art world, but cutting taxes for corporations and the ultrarich could be just the thing to boost art auction sales, according to artworld insiders.  

What about financial services deregulation? A Financial Times opinion piece makes the stakes clear, lamenting ‘the yawning investability gap between US banks and UK peers’. The author suggests that deregulation will mean “an easier regime for the mergers and acquisitions they advise on and less combative regulators”. And, the logic follows, fatter profits.  

On the other hand, as FT readers pointed out in the article’s comment section, the current regulatory regime was instituted in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Whether widespread deregulation will be good for banks in the long term remains contested. 

Crypto raises similar pitfalls and opportunities. Crypto was one of the clearest Trump Trades and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have surged since the election. At the same time, many Trump policies – such as tariffs and mega tax cuts – could usher in a new wave of inflation, with the Fed raising interest rates in response.  

Historically, crypto sees strong growth in a low interest rate environment. Could higher rates and fewer safeguards (due to widespread deregulation) ultimately cause a headache for armchair investors? 

Of course, professional traders thrive on volatility. If there’s on thing we can predict with confidence, it’s that 2025 won’t be boring.  

For weekly insight and analysis on whatever 2025 brings,  don’t miss Overleveraged, Finalto’s markets and macro podcast. It’s available wherever you get your podcasts. 

All opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice and all potential results discussed are not guaranteed to be achieved. The information may have been derived from publicly available sources, company reports, personal research, or surveys. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trading carries risk of capital loss. Service available to professional clients only.