Dogecoin surged after Donald Trump formally announced the creation of the Department Of Government Efficiency, which is to be led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump said it could be the Manhattan Project of our time! I guess the analogy is that this is the nuclear option for government spending. Musk tweeted that it was a “threat to BUREAUCRACY”. The acronym Doge is the name of the crypto asset that Musk has pumped in the past. It went up bigly. 

The market will also want to know what this means for Tesla stock – can Musk positively influence White House policy for the firm? EV credits IS the Tesla business, so scrapping these and the ability of Tesla to sell emissions credits to other automakers would be YUGE. Does he even want the White House to fast track self-driving? If it doesn’t really work, then it might be an albatross. 

Chart: Finalto 

I don’t think the efficiency stuff is pure show. Musk went on:   

“All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency. Anytime the public thinks we are cutting something important or not cutting something wasteful, just let us know! We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb spending of your tax dollars. This will be both extremely tragic and extremely entertaining”  

I guess we look at what Trump said in his victory speech when talked about paying down debt and cutting taxes. I guess the market would be right to think ‘well, which one is it gonna be?’ Stocks have rallied on post-election relief, plus the tax-cutting and deregulation agenda but haven’t really absorbed what the impact of higher deficits might be. I had a great chat with Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital, a long-term Tesla bear, about all of this for our Overleveraged podcast – it will be released this week.  

Elsewhere, gold seems to have found a floor around $2,600, whilst the dollar extended gains to hit its highest level in six months. Stocks retreated as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped 5-day win streaks. European indices are a little firmer this morning but yesterday saw the FTSE 100 at its lowest since early August.   

US CPI inflation is out later but it’s less than clear what it means for the Fed post-election. Treasury yields are a little firmer but not blowing out. Market odds for a rate cut by the Fed next month have come down a little in the last month. Yields were rising firmly (+70bps) in the month before the election. Core CPI is seen at +0.3% month-on-month, whilst the headline is seen picking up from 2.4% year-over-year to 2.6%.  

Neil Wilson

Chief Market Analyst at Finalto

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