The price of Bitcoin dropped following Kamala Harris’s strong debate showing against Donald Trump in September, suggesting that crypto markets favour a Trump win.  

If President Trump will give Bitcoin a boost, will a Harris victory be bad for crypto? Not necessarily. A Standard Chartered note, for instance, sees Bitcoin reaching record highs by the end of the year, whoever wins. 

However, there are two caveats in the Standard Chartered analysis. First, they predict Bitcoin to finish the year higher under Trump than Harris. And second, if Harris wins, they predict an initial drop in price. 

Of course, that’s just one analyst’s opinion. And if a Harris administration makes a move to heavily regulate the industry, the outcome could be very different. But the analysis might bring cheer to crypto investors who suspect Harris could be consolidating her lead.  If the Trump trade favours crypto, a Harris win could nonetheless present an opportunity for crypto to buy the dip.  

To quote Standard Chartered’s analyst, ” we would expect dips to be bought as the market recognises that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming, and as other positive drivers take hold.”  

The crypto election? 

The 2024 US election isn’t just notable for its potential effects on crypto prices. Crypto itself could also have an impact on the election.  

The fate of crypto is a priority question for at least some voters, and boosters may be more inclined to vote for whomever they perceive as the crypto-friendly candidate.  

Far more significantly, the industry is spending big on political funding this year, both directly to candidates and via super PACs. By September, the industry had poured more than $93 million into Fairshake, a super PAC that supports pro-crypto legislators. 

Fairshake’s hand is not always discernible from a casual perusal of campaign material. As a Public Citizen report points out, when Fairshake runs ad supporting or attacking candidates, it does not actually mention crypto. Notably, Fairshake supported campaign ads against Rep. Katie Porter, a vocal critic of the industry, with adverts that did not reference cryptocurrency. 

Moreover, political donors are not always entirely transparent. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was well known to be a major donor to the Democratic Party, but later claimed to have made equivalent, undisclosed, donations to the Republicans. 

Don’t put all your tokens in one basket 

Broadly speaking, Trump has received the backing of prominent Silicon Valley voices, notably Elon Musk and Peter Thiel.  

However, Harris has also seen support from the crypto world, including from Ripple cofounder Chris Larsen, who was among a number of high-profile corporate leaders who have publicly expressed support for Harris. 

Whoever wins in November, the election marks the beginning of the new chapter for crypto investors, not the final word. Much will depend on legislative developments, including efforts to repeal SAB 121. 

US Elections 2024, a deeper look 

For the latest analysis of how the US elections could affect markets, be sure to listen and subscribe to Overleveraged, the markets and macro podcast brought to you by Finalto.  

All opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice and all potential results discussed are not guaranteed to be achieved. The information may have been derived from publicly available sources, company reports, personal research, or surveys. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trading carries risk of capital loss. Service available to professional clients only.