Working on early drafts of this year’s edition of the Finalto Watchlist, one question kept stopping us in our tracks: who would occupy the White House in 2025? 

The outcome of a presidential election in the world’s dominant economic and military power will always have significant global consequences. But this year, the stakes were particularly high. 

Donald Trump has promised sweeping and dramatic policy interventions in his second term. It’s a potentially dramatic break from the Biden administration. Trump is also unpredictable, governing in his own idiosyncratic style.  

A lot can happen between now and Trump’s inauguration on 20 January. A glance at the news suggests it will. 

The rapid and surprising fall of Bashar al-Assad, who has been forced to relocate to Moscow, was the result of a complex operation, with many players backed by multiple powers. The campaign had been planned carefully, over a long period, but to what extent did its precise timing depend on a perceived need to grab the initiative while US foreign policy remains uncertain? 

Similarly, Trump has insisted Europe need to pay for its own defence, rather than relying on the United States. Will we see a push for territory in Ukraine, or will leaders on either side of the conflict apply caution until there’s more certainty about US policy? 

Does this mean we’re entering a period of accelerating global instability? Potentially. But that’s not the only way forward. 

In the Finalto Watchlist 2025: The World at a Crossroads, we imagine some of the ways in which US policy could reduce global tensions: 

Donald Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine “within a day” of returning the White House. Ukraine’s sovereign bonds rallied after his election, an unlikely Trump trade that reflects a belief he will push hard for a peace deal.  

Even European allies are braced for a peace-for-land deal that will end the conflict. Trump selected as his Secretary of State the noted China hawk Marco Rubio, who voted against $95bn aid package for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel in April, and said in September that the war in Ukraine is going to end with a negotiated settlement. In the Middle East, we will see the impact of the new administration in Washington will be felt instantly. 

Whilst Biden sough to appease Iran and impose regime change on Israel, Trump will do the exact opposite, supporting the Netanyahu government and imposing ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran. This will lead to a deal at the least to bring peace and a new settlement in the region. In East Asia, Trump’s offensive posturing should curtail any ambitions in Beijing to take Taiwan, at least for the time being. 

These scenarios are not predictions. Rather, we intend them as ways of thinking though the connections between markets, politics and technology. 

While there are innumerable ways things can slide further into chaos, there’s also plenty of scope for optimism. Could the current instability be the birth pangs of a more peaceful year to come? 

Download your free copy of the Finalto Watchlist 2025. We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we enjoyed writing it. 

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